|
Abstract : |
"Predictions are notoriously difficult and unreliable especially if they concern the future. " This old adage seems particularly appropriate for the many fast-moving modern technologies that seem to progress in leaps and bounds rather than by steady evolution---take materials science, bioengineering, telecommunications or microelectronics, to name a few. For better or worse, informatics is one of them, and database technology as one of its subdisciplines shares its difficulties in predicting future developments. On the other hand, knowing at least the directions where technology will go is indispensable for solid planning: planning the educational curricula, planning the investment of resources in application areas, planning the outlay for R&D and production facilities in order to prepare the products of the future, planning the proper organization and manpower to cope with the challenges to come. If this obliges us to predict future developments, is there any framework within which we can organize our estimates and make them somewhat more reliable even in the presence of so much uncertainty? Our conjecture for this paper is that one such framework could be provided by the forces that drive the current efforts in database research, product, |
